Beyond the invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territory, the war waged by Russia points to a more medium- and long-term objective that ends with the current international order.
According to Joseph Humire: Ending the US dollar is Russia's goal.
by Maibort Petit
In the opinion of Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS), the conflict that arose with Russia's invasion-attack of Ukraine has an objective that aims beyond sovereign claim or mere territorial annexation, rather, it is aimed at ending the hegemony of the dollar in the world economy.
Destroying the U.S. dollar would be the real goal for Vladimir Putin, says the security expert who, unlike other international spokesmen, the president of the Russian Federation is far from being weakened or finished.
Maibort Petit is a Venezuelan writer, researcher and political scientist specialized in Transnational Organized Crime. Based in New York, she works for various Hispanic media outlets and as a consultant for various firms in New York and Washington DC
Joseph Humire is executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS).
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He points out that along with the armed combat being waged on Ukrainian territory, there is another war whose scope is perhaps greater than that achieved by weapons: that of information in which both factions direct all their efforts to amplify the narratives that each of them seeks to impose. He warns that the Russians are excellent at misinforming and, in that sense, have acted since long before the war confrontation began. He points out that Russia has television networks that are very popular in the Middle East and Latin America – Russia Today and Sputnik – with which it achieves much of this objective. Humire, however, warns that on the other side, the United States, NATO, the European Union and the West in general, act accordingly. It is up to analysts and the general public to discern which information you will credit for and which you will not.
To reach these conclusions, Joseph Humire starts from some premises, namely:
1. Russia does not work alone in its objective
The security expert warns that it is a big mistake to believe that, in this war, Russia acts or makes calculations alone. He assures that a decision as important as the invasion of Ukraine was not taken by the government of Vladimir Putin without allies. He did not do so when he invaded and took Crimea, nor in the South Ossetian War with Georgia, because the head of the Russian Federation knows that he requires the support of China. He warns that it is not a natural alliance, because in other circumstances they would even be enemies, but they are united by the common interest of overthrowing the international order and by extension the United States, sustainer of that order since the end of World War II. "The decisions China is making are completely in favor of Vladimir Putin, and vice versa," said Humire, who adds Iran to this alliance.
Articles of alliances that Russia arranged before invasion. Click to read.
2. A war beyond the military
In the opinion of Joseph Humire, the invasion of Ukraine is not an improvised event to which Vladimir Putin arrived without preparation, since he has been working on it for many years and, from there, the adoption of previous decisions that are fundamental.
Among these decisions is the increase in the budget of the Ministry of Communications of Russia by 45 percent, almost double its previous allocation, because they understand that "information is war, information is conflict, that is, it will not be won with tanks and bombs in Ukraine, but when in the field of information public opinion tilts in its favor." That is the reason for the avalanche of pro-Russia propaganda in places where it was least expected. He comments, in this sense, that it is surprising to see the number of people, experts, academics, activists or others, even from the right, supporting Vladimir Putin despite his alignment with the left in Latin America and elsewhere in the world. "Along with the bombs in Ukraine, Putin drops digital bombs on the world."
3. A war of various dimensions
The executive director of the SFS assures that the war with Ukraine did not begin with the invasion of its territory or with the bombing of its cities, "that is only physical war."
Humire explains that war has several dimensions: physics; the mental, which is the psychological; and the moral dimension, which has to do with legitimacy. In this sense, he indicates that the Russians work in all these dimensions, because they are not war novices, "they are not the same as those who were in Syria or Libya, we know that Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation know about hybrid warfare" in which all kinds of means and procedures are used to achieve their goal.
Let's get the word out when Freedoms and your country is threatened.
4. Previous calculations
Russia's invasion of Ukraine required a prior calculation in which the response of the United States and NATO was measured. In the case of the latter, Putin and his allies considered the position of Germany and Italy, countries that knew they would not compromise their armed forces in the defense of a country that is not a member of the body. Meanwhile, the calculation about the US, Russia based it on the "disaster" that became the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.
"Vladimir Putin knows that there will be no military response to his aggression-invasion of Ukraine." He comments that such was the certainty of the Russian leader in this regard, that in the invasion he did not resort to his best teams as he did in Syria, for example. "Putin acted this way because he knew perfectly well that the West would not intervene militarily."
Russia's military action occurred on the calculation of the response that the West would have, as has already been said, which would be limited to the application of sanctions, which, although very severe and forceful – including Russia's exit from the Society for World Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and the freezing of assets abroad – which was perfectly measured by Putin and his allies.
To assume that Russia is weakened and ended by sanctions is a mistake, according to Humire, who knew that this would be the Western reaction and prepared for it.
6. No surprises
Joseph Humire refers to what was said by the Russian adviser Sergei Glazyev, who in his book "Genocide: Russia and the New World Order" makes a series of statements that Vladimir Putin practically repeats when carrying out the invasion of Ukraine, such as the qualification of Ukraine as a Nazi regime.
Likewise, he recalls that years ago he witnessed how Putin in a meeting with the leaders of the countries of the Bolivarian alliance, Rafael Correa (Ecuador), Evo Morales (Bolivia), Hugo Chávez (Venezuela), Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua), said that it was necessary to get out of the US dollar and that is why the "Sucre" emerged at the time – turned into a money laundering mechanism, but they were experimenting—and then the Petro and Ecuador's digital system.
He argues that knowing the effect that sanctions would have on the Russian people, Putin made the determination to invade Ukraine, because his vision is set in the long term when due to the overexposure of sanctions they lose their effect. "Russia's strategy is to lose in the short term to win in the medium term. They will suffer in the coming months, maybe years, and then be able to replace this current system with the Chinese one, established in 2010."
Everything is calculated between Russia and China, says Joseph Humire, while recalling that, for example, when Visa and MasterCard announced the end of their operations in Russia, they immediately announced their move to the Chinese system.